Sam McBride: PM utterly misread DUP, pushing them away

After a year-and-a-half in close partnership with the DUP at Westminster and armed with all the intelligence gathered by the government machine, the prime minister does not appear to understand the nature of the DUP’s opposition to her plan.

Using her ultra-loyal Secretary of State Karen Bradley to press the DUP on two fronts – the problems of no deal for business and for the Union – did nothing to move the 10 DUP MPs. Coming from a messenger which the party doesn’t respect, the message carried little weight.

As the prime minister talked about Northern Ireland from the despatch box last night, the DUP’s MPs muttered and shook their heads.

Without radical changes to the backstop, there was never any prospect of the DUP recanting on its opposition to this deal.

But in recent days there have been glimpses of the internal debate which is now going on within the DUP as to what may happen now.

Last week chief whip Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said that the party would consider “with interest” a proposal to commit the government to end the backstop within a year. But the party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, said that such a pledge was so pointless that “you could sign it in blood and it wouldn’t mean anything”.

Yesterday both Nigel Dodds and Arlene Foster repeated their opposition to a no-deal Brexit, yet a year ago DUP MP Ian Paisley talked bullishly about leaving without a deal.

A cannier prime minister would have sought to exploit the DUP’s different wings, which take in everyone from closet Remainers to ardent Brexiteers.

But throwing money at them, as was in December reported to be one government line of thinking, won’t work.

If the party sees this as a constitutional threat to the Union – the defence of which is the DUP’s raison d’être – then the acceptance of money or peerages or any other practical ‘gift’ would make an already difficult sell to the party’s supporters almost impossible because it would look like they had quite literally sold out on their central principles.