The DUP's core voters may be Foster's biggest problem

But Sinn Fein issued a statement shortly after the interview, saying, “While there are some strongly held views (on abortion), it is not credible to suggest that it will make republicans become unionist.”

Yet Foster wasn’t suggesting that. She was simply saying that there are some issues so personal and specific to individual voters – and abortion is clearly one of them – that they dominate and eclipse every other issue. Had the SDLP not shifted its policy two weeks ago then those Sinn Fein voters who contacted Foster would have contacted Colum Eastwood.

I know UUP voters who have no problem at all with same-sex-marriage and abortion, yet who have made the DUP their first choice at elections because they want to ‘send a message’ to Sinn Fein. I have talked to TUV members who acknowledge that, “while many people tell us they share Jim’s views, they will still be voting for the DUP because they don’t want a split vote to help Sinn Fein”.

I know UUP voters – particularly in South and East Belfast – who have told me they have voted Alliance because it’s “a better option for curbing the DUP”. And I’ve spoken to former SDLP voters who, even though they disapprove of Sinn Fein’s links with the IRA, switched to Sinn Fein and have remained with them.

Let’s be honest, a political party will take votes from wherever they come. Foster knows that the numbers are very small – probably no more than a few hundred – but they could be useful if it came to the last council or Assembly seat in a tight fight.

Even former Sinn Fein voters choosing to stay at home rather than vote for anyone else (and that’s more likely than Sinn Fein voters actually taking the massive leap to the DUP) is still helpful in tight contests.

At the time of the 1998 referendum around 100,000 or so small-u unionists (who hadn’t voted for years) came out and voted Yes: but then didn’t bother supporting the UUP in the first Assembly election a few weeks later. Had they done so and remained with Trimble at the next election the DUP would never have made its key electoral breakthrough in November 2003.

Foster also told Blevins that abortion was an important issue: “Serious discussion and serious, mature debate is required. (The DUP) wants to put forward a rational explanation for why we hold these particular views.”

That seems reasonable to me; not least because a very significant wing of the DUP – and most of them have stayed with and voted for the party since the earliest, least electorally successful days – view abortion and same-sex-marriage issues as issues where their only lead is from God.

It also seemed reasonable to me when she said, “(Let’s recall the Assembly) and discuss same-sex-marriage. Let’s discuss abortion. Let’s discuss the Irish Language, instead of putting up a barrier.” The barrier she meant was Sinn Fein’s red line on an Irish language act. But say, for the sake of argument, that Sinn Fein offered to withdraw their red line? Would the DUP be prepared to promise not to deploy a petition of concern, even if they thought they would lose the vote on some socio/ethical issues? I don’t see the point of Foster offering to discuss anything if she knows – as would everyone else – that the petition would be used if the numbers looked tight.

At the moment the DUP couldn’t deploy the petition without support from Jim Allister and a couple of UUP MLAs. There may be SDLP MLAs who share the DUP’s concerns on abortion, but I think it’s very unlikely they would join them in a petition.

So, how likely is it that the DUP would promise not to use it? Not very.

Between 1998 and 2007 the DUP took a series of calculated, high-level risks, culminating in the Paisley/McGuinness deal.

The key to those risks was keeping their own base together as well as winning over UUP, UKUP (Bob McCartney’s old party – which had five MLAs in 1998) voters and a raft of other unionist independents and floaters. So sure of their strategy were they (and much of it relied on the grassroots’ continuing devotion to Paisley at the time) that they didn’t lift a finger to keep Jim All-star on board. And as long as they remained top dog electorally all would be well.

Things are different now. Risks are more difficult. Unionists – under Foster’s watch – lost their overall Assembly majority.

The Assembly hasn’t met for over 500 days and there is increasing public impatience with MLAs on full salary while decisions aren’t made.

The DUP is taking almost daily blows as the RHI saga rolls on. For all the talk of their role as Westminster kingmakers, the DUP has had to issue a number of very public warnings to Theresa May that their support cannot be taken for granted. Crucially, while the DUP grassroots were prepared to shift policy and take risks for clear political/electoral gains, I’m pretty sure that God’s teaching on abortion and homosexuality will, in their eyes, trump Foster’s desire to get herself out of her present hole. In other words, they’re not going to back the return of an Assembly which delivers those ‘abominations’.

Deep down Foster knows – as do many key figures across unionism – that Northern Ireland occupying a ‘place apart’ limbo within the British Isles is not good for either local or pan-UK unionism. But she knows too – and this is her biggest problem – that huge numbers of the DUP’s core vote (along with many in the TUV and UUP) are happy to be different.