Boyne Bridge gridlock: Roads bosses dodge questions on using traffic predictions from 10 months ago to clear plans instead of checking actual streets of Belfast right now

Those predictions state that most of the city centre’s main routes should see only a minimal impact from shutting Durham Street for up to a year to demolish the bridge – something that does not seem to be borne out by widespread traffic jams seen since work started two months ago.

Modelling contained in a Construction Traffic Management Plan dates back to February, but appears to have been used in the past few weeks to justify the Department for Infrastructure dropping concerns it had over traffic congestion issues.

Officials refused to confirm whether or not those projections were the ones that formed the basis for their abrupt change of position.

They also didn’t answer questions about why they may have used traffic predictions from February instead of looking at what’s actually happening on the streets of Belfast now as a result of the closure.

The modelling forecasts that Ormeau Road, Malone Road, Lisburn Road, and Falls Road will all see moderate impacts, and the only main route likely to see a major impact is Donegall Road.

It also predicts that Grosvenor Road will see a large increase in pedestrian footfall, which is used as partial justification for closing a left-turn onto that road from Great Victoria Street.

Over the past two months Grosvenor Road businesses have complained that footfall has fallen off a cliff, to the point that they fear for their survival.

DfI officials did not answer questions put to them by the News Letter about the apparent gap between projections contained in the modelling and what is actually happening in the real world now.

They also refused to say whether or not they think the modelling is still accurate or if it has been updated since February.

Instead, the DfI only reissued a statement it sent the News Letter yesterday maintaining that any changes to the closure plans are “being processed by the Department in line with due process.”

The modelling forms part of a planning application filed by Translink, which would allow the firm to shut down Durham Street and demolish the Boyne Bridge.

In mid-October, DfI officials were heavily critical of the application. Citing concerns over traffic mitigation, officials said it was “unacceptable” – though by that point work had already begun and city centre streets were gridlocked, while trade on nearby Sandy Row was decimated.

Citing concerns over traffic mitigation, officials said the application was unacceptable – though by that point work had already begun and city centre streets were gridlocked, while trade on nearby Sandy Row was decimated.

Several days ago the DfI reversed that position, stating that after a review of traffic modelling the application is now considered “robust” and “acceptable”.

That sparked anger from MLA Edwin Poots, who accused officials of carrying out a “desktop exercise” and challenged them to “look out a window” to see the true extent of congestion problems.

The DfI is responsible for approving major plans such as the bridge work; it’s also responsible for overseeing Translink, the applicant in the case.