Coronavirus: Top scientist says traffic numbers ‘show people getting lax about lockdown’ amid optimism about contagion rate

One of Northern Ireland’s top scientists has declared that public obedience to the rules of the lockdown appears to be waning.
By Adam Kula
Published 30th Apr 2020, 19:32 BST
Updated 1st May 2020, 07:41 BST
UK government data, from 30-04-20, showing the number of coronavirus deathsUK government data, from 30-04-20, showing the number of coronavirus deaths
UK government data, from 30-04-20, showing the number of coronavirus deaths

Speaking at a Stormont press conference last night Professor Ian Young, chief scientific advisor to the Department of Health, said that in terms of social distancing and other restrictions, there appears to be “a reasonably good” adherence to the policies.

But he went on to say that “there is some evidence, particularly around traffic usage, which seems to suggest that adherence is declining slowly”.

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Addressing the reporters, he said: “I guess the message I’d like to give today is to ask people to reflect on that, reflect on where we are, and understand the importance of renewing the commitment to the current measures. They’re in place for a good reason.”

Graph from Johns Hopkins University, tracking the five-day averages of new coronavirus cases in the UK and ItalyGraph from Johns Hopkins University, tracking the five-day averages of new coronavirus cases in the UK and Italy
Graph from Johns Hopkins University, tracking the five-day averages of new coronavirus cases in the UK and Italy

He also talked in some detail about the science behind their modelling.

In particular, he wanted to draw a factor called “R0” to public attention.

He said: “We have now passed the peak of the epidemic in terms of cases, hospital admissions, ICU occupancy, in terms of this current first wave... It is now clear that while cases are falling they are falling very slowly indeed.

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“The key to understanding it in scientific terms is to appreciate the importance of a number which has been mentioned more than once in recent times: the basic reproduction number – also known as R-nought or R-zero (R0).

Streets and roads deserted of traffic have become a common sight in NI during lockdownStreets and roads deserted of traffic have become a common sight in NI during lockdown
Streets and roads deserted of traffic have become a common sight in NI during lockdown

“If one person infects three other individuals who then have the virus, then R 0 is said to be three.

“The key value for R0, and one I hope everybody will bear in mind and be aware of in the months to come, is one.

“When R0 is above one, the epidemic will increase in all of its aspects. When R0 is below one, we will have the epidemic under control and cases will begin to decrease.”

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Before social distancing and the lockdown, R0 stood at just under three.

Professor Ian Young, chief scientific advisor to the Department of Health, during the daily media broadcast in the Long Gallery at Parliament Buildings, StormontProfessor Ian Young, chief scientific advisor to the Department of Health, during the daily media broadcast in the Long Gallery at Parliament Buildings, Stormont
Professor Ian Young, chief scientific advisor to the Department of Health, during the daily media broadcast in the Long Gallery at Parliament Buildings, Stormont

And right now R0 lies between 0.8 and 0.9 – “meaning that each person with Covid infects less than one other individual on average”.

DRUG IN SPOTLIGHT AS DEATH TOLL NEARS 250,000

Prof Young was also asked about the efficacy of Remdesivir – a drug which has reportedly helped some people to recover from coronavirus more quickly than they otherwise would.

The BBC quoted Dr Anthony Fauci, head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, saying a government-run trial involving 1,063 people had shown “a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery”.

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Prof Young said many “novel treatments” are being tested, and Remdesivir appears to show “very positive results” according to reports, but they are “waiting for fuller data on that to be published” – adding there are some UK clinical trials of the drug.

In terms of a global picture, the famed medical university Johns Hopkins has been keeping a daily tally of global deaths, which it put at just under 223,000 at time of writing.

The USA was worst, with roughly 61,300 deaths.

In terms of major European nations, Italy’s fatalities stood at about 28,000, Spain’s at just under 25,000, and France at slightly under 24,100. As of 6pm last night, the UK government said the UK death toll of people who tested positive for coronavirus was 26,771.

Charts from both Johns Hopkins and the UK government show a gradual trend towards falling daily fatality rates in the UK (from a peak of 1,172 on April 21, to 674 yesterday).

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Related topics:Northern IrelandDepartment of HealthSPOTLIGHT