Winter storm rainfall in UK and Ireland ‘made 20% heavier by climate change’

A rapid attribution study has assessed the role of rising temperatures in the storms and heavy rain which led to at least 13 deaths and widespread damage across the two countries, as more than a dozen severe storms swept in between October and March.

It found that autumn and winter storms over the UK and Ireland were becoming wetter due to human-caused global warming.

And one of the scientists involved in the study issued a blunt warning that “climate change is already making life shittier”.

The UK and Ireland saw 13 to 14 severe storms in 2023/24, 11 of which were named as part of a western Europe warning system.

They led to severe and repeated flooding and power outages, disrupted travel, caused the loss of crops and livestock, and left farmers with waterlogged fields which they could not plant in the spring.

The research used weather data and climate models to compare the storm severity and associated rain, as well as rainfall over the storm season, between today's world and the cooler climate before industrialisation.

Human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, which puts climate-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, has pushed up temperatures by around 1.2C since the pre-industrial period.

The study found human-induced climate change had led to the average rainfall on a stormy day becoming around 20% heavier. This means that the level of intense storm rainfall seen in 2023/2024 has become 10 times more likely.