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A prominent unionist economist has given his verdict on a new report into how post-Brexit arrangements have affected the NI economy – saying that the authors could well have underestimated one of the key negative impacts in their findings.
By Adam Kula
Published 15th Nov 2022, 22:27 BST
Updated 15th Nov 2022, 22:27 BST
Esmond BirnieEsmond Birnie
Esmond Birnie

The report was commissioned last year by the DUP-controlled Department for the Economy.

It involved an outfit called InterAnalysis – a team of analysts at the University of Sussex – sifting through trade data to gauge the effect Brexit has had on the Province.

It has only just been published by the department.

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Among its findings is that, by modelling a situation quite close to the current status quo, the researchers found it had created a "loss in economic welfare for NI" of roughly 2.4%.

The report said "increasing trade barriers, especially on GB to NI trade flows, predominantly serves to reduce overall economic welfare for NI society as a whole, increasing costs to consumers and thereby lowering overall demand/purchasing potential".

Now Esmond Birnie (pictured), an Ulster University economist and ex-UUP MLA, has said the report is “thorough”, “detailed”, and "some of the results produced by the trade specialists at Sussex are plausible – though others much less so".

He went on: "Importantly, they do show that the current position ... does lead to a reduction in 'economic welfare' in NI (economic welfare allows for the fact that whilst some businesses are better off, many consumer are worse off given higher prices, so it attempts to allow for the balance of impact). And one key reason for this negative outcome is that prices are higher."

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However, he questioned other aspects of the report's modelling, saying that "I think the Sussex assumption of 2% higher costs because of the protocol is too low … and, to the extent that it is too low then it is likely their estimation of the welfare loss produced by the protocol etc is also too low".

The authors of the report had acknowledged they faced limitations; they said “the research underpinning this work was undertaken largely in 2021 and therefore it might not take account of more recent changes to the economic context”.

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