Head of the RAF interview: 'The threat of a state-on-state conflict has become much more real'

Air Chief Marshal Harvey ‘Harv' Smyth was speaking to the News Letter as he settles into the new role, which he formally took up last month.

Originally from Lurgan, he began training as a pilot in Northern Ireland in the mid-1980s before entering the RAF, and went on to spend much of the next 35 years flying fighter jet missions over the Balkans, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

He spoke to the News Letter on a visit to Belfast, where he appeared at Stormont to mark the anniversary of the Battle of Britain.

He was asked about the adversaries and the threats the UK faces: which of them make him the most concerned?

“I think just generally in a world which has become more unpredictable we've shifted in the last couple of years to the realisation that the threat of a state-on-state conflict – so the threat of big state nations threatening us – has become much more real,” he told the News Letter.

"What we see play out in Ukraine at the moment, a very major brutal war going on right on our doorstep.

"That's all happening three and a half hours' flight from where I'm standing at the moment. And that's a very tangible threat for us.

"So I think the fact the world has changed around us and we're now facing a world that's much more uncertain, much more volatile, could be more unpredictable, and the key for me as the new chief coming into the RAF is to make sure we're ready for that, to make sure we've optimised all the capabilities that we have today so that if we needed to fight tonight to defend the nation we can do it.

"And in parallel to make sure we are modernising as quickly as we can so that we're prepared for whatever those potential adversaries could bring to bear against us tomorrow.

"So this idea of ‘optimise for tonight, modernise for tomorrow’ is going to be my strapline as I've come into this role, and that's certainly where our defence secretary is in terms of his orders for me as I become the new chief.”

Not long after the News Letter spoke to him, UK defence secretary John Healey tasked the military with looking at how the UK can help bolster NATO’s air defence over Poland, after Russia sent drones into Polish territory that were shot down.

NATO jets downed the drones in what was the first defensive action of its kind since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

There are around 300 UK military personnel in Poland, and until July six RAF Typhoon jets were operating from the country as part of NATO’s air policing mission.

Air Chief Marshal Smyth was also asked about whether, in this era of drone warfare, there is still a place for manned military aeroplanes.

"I think certainly within yours and my lifetime,” he said.

"We've got aeroplanes coming into our inventory in the next five, 10 years which are crewed aircraft, and they will be with us for the next 40 to 50 years.

"So absolutely – yes. We will have crewed aircraft.”

He added: “Obviously uncrewed systems are cheaper so you could afford more of them. They don't have a human in them so we can take more risks with them.

"And that makes us much more lethal, which means our potential adversaries are much more inclined to be deterred by the fact we've got these capabilities.

"So obviously we're already flying quite a few uncrewed aircraft, and that will grow, and the ratio of that will get bigger.

"But certainly as long as I'm around we will definitely have crewed aircraft in the Royal Air Force.”