Two-thirds of NI voters support remaining in UK – but health a main priority: Survey

The poll, carried out by the University of Liverpool, examines attitudes around a number of issues linked to the Northern Ireland Protocol, including people’s attitude towards the impact of the post-Brexit trading arrangements.

It found that 66.2% would opt to remain in the UK (excluding non voters and don’t knows) – a figure in line with the most recent Life and Times survey showing support for the Union at 67%.

Both polls reflect a much higher level of support for the status quo than the latest LucidTalk survey, which puts the pro-Union camp at 53.8% (to 46.2% against) once the non voters and don’t knows are excluded.

The latest poll also suggests a brighter outlook for the DUP ahead of next May’s assembly elections, with the pollsters suggesting: “The fortunes of the DUP are not as meagre as assumed”.

That claim is based on support for the DUP at 20.6% – compared to 13% in the last LucidTalk poll.

A key finding was that 75% agree with the UK Government’s proposal that goods should be able to circulate without checks on their movement into and within NI if they meet either UK or EU standards.

The new survey shows the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) are on 13% and 5.6% respectively, with Sinn Fein ahead on 23.5%.

Support for Alliance at 17.3% – which is 8.2% above the share of first preference votes they received in the 2017 assembly election and on a par with their Westminster election performance in 2019.

The focus of the survey – of just over 1,000 interviews – was: most important issue in N Ireland, acceptability of recent EU announced mitigations in relation to the NI Protocol; general opinion on the NI Protocol; perception of how different groups handled the dispute around the NI Protocol; support for NI remaining part of the UK/Irish unity; voting intention and demographic characteristics.

The pollsters said: “The issues around the Protocol have caused tension and controversy but more recently, mitigations/easements have been advanced as well as proposals from the UK government.

“With regard to EU proposals, we locate majority support with strongest support among Sinn Fein and SDLP voters.

“Within all communities, we observe significant shares who do not know or neither agree or disagree but generally, we find agreement higher than disagreement across unionist, nationalist and neither.”

In relation to whether the mitigations announced by the EU on October 13 are enough to allow all parties to move forward, 36% of DUP and 30.8% UUP voters agreed compared to 28.1% and 29.8% who respectively disagreed.

Similarly, in relation to the mitigations, 39% of those who wish to remain in the UK agreed to accept and move on, compared to 32.5% who wish to reject and renegotiate.

“Evidently, there is no majority support within the pro-union community to reject mitigations and easements, or to reject the process of solution seeking moving forward,” the pollsters said.

They also said the data suggests “that ongoing solution seeking gains inter-community consent and the idea that the pro-union are set against the mitigations is not as grounded as has been claimed,” and that “with regard to the EU proposal regarding food, plant and animal health, 54.9% were in support.

“Half as many (24.2%) disagreed and a fifth (20.9%) stated they did not know”.

When asked their views on the political performance or each party in relation to their handling of issues arising from the protocol – including whether they had acted in good faith or dealt with disputes well, the results fell within predictable lines.

“Unionists are more likely to agree that the UK Government and related political parties had done well.

“Nationalists agree that the Irish government, the European Union and parties they support had achieved good faith and political handling.

“In no case did any political party, the UK or Irish government or EU gain majority support.”

In terms of the constitutional position of Northern Ireland, the highest share of support for remaining in the United Kingdom sits among those aged 60+ (74.6%) with similar shares among those aged 36-59 (55%) and those under 36 (54%).

Females (12.5%) were almost three times more likely than males (4.9%) to state that they did not know which way they would vote if a border poll took place tomorrow, while 11.6% of the overall survey sample declared that they did not know how they would vote.

However, in terms of people’s concerns and priorities at the minute, the Northern Ireland Protocol is only ranked fourth.

The constitutional position is also regarded as a low priority, with Health, Covid recovery and the Economy the three main issues.

Only 9.6% of respondents agreed that the NI Assembly and NI Executive should not be in place come next year’s elections.

The pollster found: “With regard to priorities and issues 59.8% chose Health, Covid Recovery and the Economy as their first preference. 9.1% chose the protocol.

“Among those who wish to remain in the United Kingdom, 12.6% stated the protocol was the most important issue to them compared to 5.4% who wish for a united Ireland. 65% believed that it is imperative that the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive remain in place until the elections in May 2022. 62.2% of DUP voters agreed”.

The University of Liverpool survey fieldwork was conducted between October 21 and October 29 this year.

The full report is available here