2021 census: Whilst nationalists hail results, opinion poll shows support for ending partition never rises above 30%

And whilst people’s religious background is an extremely good indicator of whether they are likely to be unionist or nationalist, regular surveys have gone on for decades in the Province into the constitutional question – and show that support for a united Ireland does not mirror the number of Catholics.

Arguably the best polling of all is done by the Life and Times Survey, which has been running regularly since 1998, and was set up by the Province’s two main universities.

Made up of face-to-face interviews with about 1,200 people, in 2019 it asked:

Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it to remain part of the UK or, to reunify with the rest of Ireland?

Some 60% said remain, and only 22% said reunify.

Also in 2019 it asked people how they would vote if a border poll were called tomorrow.

Fifty-one per cent would vote against Irish unity – more than double the 25% who would vote in favour.

Most of the rest did not know, or would not vote.

The proportion of those favouring Irish unity in the Life and Times survey has ranged from 30% in 2006, all the way down to 14% in 2015 (with the average being 20.4%).

“Support for a united Ireland is small,” said unionist economist Graham Gudgin at the time.

“It doesn’t get much publicity.

“There’s quite a lot in there that would give unionists much more comfort.”

And speaking about the 2021 census last night, Professor Gudgin told the News Letter that “the figures tell us little about support for Irish unity”.

He said: “Catholics are only 45% of the NI population, and 44,000 immigrants from Catholic countries may not support Irish unity – they have moved to the UK after all.”