Coronavirus: ‘Vast bulk of fatal victims are elderly and/or sick – and we must consider harm we’re inflicting on next generation’ says doctor

Whilst a strong link between age and suspected Covid-19 deaths has already been charted by the NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), the official stats body has yet to map out a detailed relationship between suspected coronavirus fatalities and the general ill-health of the patients who had the virus.

Now Dr Anne McCloskey, a Londonderry-based doctor who has come out a retirement to help during the Covid crisis by working out-of-hours GP shifts, has insisted this data should be produced as soon as possible.

The authorities could then use such information to help inform their decisions when weighing up the risk posed by coronavirus against the damage being done to regular patients who may be much younger, healthier, and have highly-treatable conditions which grow worse the longer they are unaddressed.

A government study in the Republic of Ireland on May 6 indicated that of all the fatal patients who had been diagnosed with Covid-19, 85.5% “were reported as having underlying health conditions”.

A government study in England and Wales meanwhile showed that “91% of those who died due to Covid-19 had a pre-existing condition” in the month of March.

Given the comparatively small number of Covid-19 deaths in Northern Ireland, Dr McCloskey said working out similar figures here should be “an afternoon’s work”.

Just under 93% of all Northern Irish Covid-19 deaths are in those aged 65 and over.

Dr McCloskey (who qualified as a doctor in 1981 and is also an Aontu councillor in Londonderry) said death certificates frequently cite “suspicions of Covid-19” but also list strokes, motor neurone disease, diabetes, heart disease, and so on alongside it.

“Are there many certificates that just have ‘Covid-19’ on? I would think not. Or very, very few,” she said.

“It really is not a big task, going through 400 death certs and counting up what the craic is. I’d predict at least 90% will have other major things that of themselves would have caused deaths.

“Generally speaking the mortality figures from Covid are people nearing the end of their lives and who have complex and often multiple pre-existing conditions.

“We’re all going to die. You can’t push the Grim Reaper away forever... But then you have to look at the balance of the harm that it [the lockdown] is doing, and the harm it’s going to do to future generations – nobody is looking at that.

“People aren’t getting hips done, not getting cataracts done, they’re not getting their gall bladder operation done, they’re in pain, worried, frightened.”

For these routine patients, she said, “the NHS has ceased to function”.

She said of the doctors who are waiting for a mass surge in cases: “We’re here waiting for Godot, and it hasn’t happened and it’s not going to happen. Everyone is in a state of alert for something that is not going to happen.”

Weekly bulletins released by NISRA regarding Covid-19 deaths in Northern Ireland show a detailed picture of the age profiles of fatal Covid cases.

Its latest figures cover all deaths anywhere in the Province where Covid-19 appears on the death certificate (up to May 1).

These deaths are included regardless of whether Covid-19 was the main cause of death, and regardless of whether a Covid-19 test was done; all that is required is that a doctor has “noted that there was suspected or probable coronavirus infection”.

So, of the 494 deaths registered up to that point 15.4% were aged 65 to 74; another 33.2% were aged 75 to 84, and 43.9% were aged 85 and over.

NISRA RESPONSE:

“The weekly NISRA bulletin details where Covid-19 or suspected Covid-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions.

“At this stage it is not possible to determine if COVID-19 fatalities are more common with those with other health conditions until further analysis on cause of death has been completed.

“NISRA is committed to publishing as much as information as it can about COVID-19 related deaths as quickly as possible.

“Cause of death information involves complex coding work to be carried out on behalf of NISRA by the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

“As soon as this is completed NISRA will do the necessary analysis in relation to underlying and contributory causes and make this publicly available.”

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