US President Donald Trump’s pledge to bring "thousands" of overseas US factories back to America could have an impact on the 240,000 people employed by US companies on the island of Ireland, a top economist has warned.

And the new President's pledge this week appears to be part of a longer trend in US government policy, says Ulster University Senior Economist Esmond Birnie.

But Dr Birnie also noted that the Republic of Ireland has a much bigger dependency on the US than does Northern Ireland.

NI exports about £1.9bn of goods and services to the US but the Republic's exports are worth over 30 times more - at around £57.7bn, he said.

placeholder image — Economist Esmond Birnie says Donald Trump's policy on bringing jobs back home could have an impact on the island of Ireland.

And around 31,195 people are employed by US firms in Northern Ireland - but almost 6.7 times more are employed by US firms in the south - 209,000.

"Making American make [manufacture] things as part of 'Making American Great Again' clearly matters a lot to the new President," Dr Birnie told the News Letter.

In his first term he cut the rates of US Corporation Tax from 30% to 21% "and he would like if possible to go further" he added.

"All that would make it less attractive for US businesses to come to either Northern Ireland or the Republic of Ireland."

(The official rate in the Republic of 12.5% although Dr Birnie says most businesses pay much less.)

He added: "In late 2024 Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signalled out how he would, in his view, like to see the Republic of Ireland-US economic relationship rebased to be very much more favourable to the US."

Mr Lutnick actually highlighted how the Republic sells far more to the US than it buys from America, he added.

"At about the same time the Wall Street Journal (22 November 2024) pointed out how American firms were making an incredible contribution to total tax revenues in the Republic of Ireland.

"The outgoing Irish PM Simon Harris conceded that three US tech firms in Ireland were contributing about euros 10bn (£8.5bn) to Irish Corporation Tax revenues. "He therefore argued that negotiating the bilateral relationship with Trump and the US would be key priority for the next Irish Government."

But he added that if US policy makes NI (and the rest of the UK) a less attractive location for US businesses, Stormont will need to show that it can raise the output per worker, which is currently "very low" compared to "much higher levels found in the US".

DUP MLA David Brooks said a positive trading relationship between the UK and US is in the interest of both countries.

"The DUP wish to see the Government work with the Trump administration to strengthen these economic ties for the benefit of Northern Ireland," he said.

"Whilst there is much speculation regarding the potential introduction of tariffs by President Trump, we await the detail of any such measures.

"However, whether it be in relation to a free trade deal, or tariffs, we in Northern Ireland will remain hamstrung by the disadvantage of the Northern Ireland Protocol and the impact of the internal border within the UK.”

The News Letter also invited several Irish government departments and the Stormont Department of Economy to comment, as well as Sinn Fein.