ELECTION 2022: Fascinating contest in Upper Bann where UUP leader attempts to recover lost ground

Mr Beattie only took over the reins of the Ulster Unionist Party last May but it was already clear which direction he wanted to steer the party, having set out his stall in his bid to unseat the then DUP MP David Simpson in the 2017 general election.

Despite predictions of his imminent demise for speaking out in support of same-sex marriage and abortion services provision, he now leads a party seemingly united as it works to recover some of the ground lost to the DUP.

DUP candidates Jonathan Buckley and former MEP Diane Dodds are expected to retain two seats for the party, while the Ulster Unionists are fielding two candidates in the hope of regaining a seat they lost (Jo-Anne Dobson) when the number of seats was cut from six to five.

Glenn Barr is the second UUP candidate this time around and the party is expected to benefit from transfers, including Alliance and SDLP, much more than the DUP candidates.

Previously the TUV candidates have been well off the pace, polling just over 1,000 first preference votes (2-3%), but the party has high hopes that its strong anti-protocol stance will be a springboard for progress.

Tensions have been high as the public anti-protocol demonstrations continue and, once again, Doug Beattie has placed himself outside what would be considered the traditional unionist camp occupied by both the DUP and TUV - distancing himself from the largely well attended rallies.

Jonathan Buckley is confident that the majority of unionist voters, in what is considered a fairly socially conservative heartland, will continue to support the DUP’s “family values”.

He said: “You can’t take anything for granted but we have been having a very positive engagement with people across the constituency.

“A lot of people use our offices and we have helped a lot of people.

“But the big issue I’ve picked up from people is the need and the desire for unionism to work more together, to work collectively.

“They are sick, sore and tired of seeing unionist in-fighting over small issues.

“The issue of abortion is a very strong issue on the doors. People are energised around family values, and that is something that I have been pushing in the assembly, but people have seen family values come under attack.

“They also understand the seriousness of the election and they are very aware of what the consequences could be of Sinn Fein dominance in the assembly, and what that means in terms of border polls etc.”

Mr Buckley said the DUP has moved on from the internal divisions that threatened to split the party following the ousting of former leader Arlene Foster.

“This isn’t about individuals anymore, this is about the country. People are focussed now on what the bigger issue is, it’s about the country,” he said.

“Transfers are so important and, among the unionist family, I am encouraging everyone to get down that ballot paper, secure the seats, transfer to other unionists to ensure that we maximise representation. Because it is only through maximised representation can we deal with the issues such as the protocol and other issues of concern for unionist voters.”

Doug Beattie has faced a furious backlash in some quarters over his lack of support for the anti-protocol demonstrations but says he remains focussed on tackling bread and butter issues.

“It has been an interesting campaign because there are a lot of issues around, be they global issues, or Northern Ireland specific issues or wider UK issues,” he said.

“Throughout the whole of Upper Bann, people are really interested in what’s happening, not just on the local stage, not just in Northern Ireland, but in the wider UK and the wider world, including Ukraine.

“But the conversations we are having, and the sense you are feeling, is that the cost of living crisis, which is a lived experience, is affecting more and more people, and those people are saying ‘I’m looking a way out of this.’

“The last 15 years has not left us in a good place. We have under-invested in our health service, our school estate is collapsing, and you get the sense that people are starting to realise that we haven’t done proper long term planning and they are starting to feel that in their everyday lives.”

Mr Beattie said the protocol is a cause for “genuine concern,” but added: “It’s not mentioned a lot if I’m really honest with you. It’s mentioned very little.

“In some cases that is because it’s so complicated - that people don’t want to talk about it because they don’t fully understand it. So they will always revert to talk about things that they understand, like I can’t get my hip replaced or I can’t get knee operation, I can’t see my GP, I can’t get my car MOT’d.

“Therefore I think they shy away from the protocol, but I think there is genuine concern out there, that aspects of the protocol need to be looked at, such as being able to get goods from Great Britain into Northern Ireland.”

TUV candidate Darrin Foster was born just weeks before the 1995 Drumcree parading dispute began in Portadown.

Now 26, he remembers attending some of the early years protests on his father’s shoulders and believes the anti-protocol demonstrations are another example of unionists’ frustration that “nobody is standing up for unionists except for Jim Allister at Stormont”.

Mr Foster, who lives in The Birches outside Portadown, said he is confident of a significant increase in TUV votes in Upper Bann.

“They are going to come from both the Ulster Unionists and the DUP I think.

“Mainly at the expense for Doug Beattie and Diane Dodds. There is a real desire for change and the TUV is the party that is offering reform of Stormont. People are sick of the shambles.

“The only way that there could ever be a Sinn Fein first minister is if there is a stooge unionist party to act as their bridesmaid.”

The battle within nationalism is also fairly unpredictable despite a strong Sinn Fein vote in the constituency.

Having lost her seat in 2016, Dolores Kelly of the SDLP reclaimed the seat at the expense of Sinn Fein the following year.

Sinn Fein’s John O’Dowd is expected to comfortably retain his seat, leaving party colleague Liam Mackle, Dolores Kelly and the UUP’s Glenn Barr fighting for the fifth seat – provided both DUP candidates and Doug Beattie hold their vote.

Eoin Tennyson could benefit from the general upward trend in the Alliance vote but has a lot of ground to make up to mount a serious challenge.

OUTGOING MLAS:

Diane Dodds (DUP)

Jonathan Buckley (DUP)

John O’Dowd (SF)

Dolores Kelly (SDLP)

Doug Beattie (UUP)

2019 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS:

Carla Lockhart, DUP, votes 20,501, 41% ELECTED

John O’Dowd, Sinn Fein, 12,291, 24.6%

Eoin Tennyson, Alliance, 6,433, 12.9%

Doug Beattie, UUP, 6,197, 12.4%

Dolores Kelly, SDLP, 4,623, 9.2%

2017 STORMONT ELECTION RESULTS:

Carla Lockhart, DUP, First preference votes 9,140, 17.7% ELECTED

John O’Dowd, Sinn Fein, 8,220, 15.9% ELECTED

Jonathan Buckley, DUP, 7,745, 15.0% ELECTED

Doug Beattie, UUP, 5,467, 10.6% ELECTED

Dolores Kelly, SDLP, 5,127, 9.9% ELECTED

Jo-Anne Dobson, UUP, 5,132, 10.0%

Nuala Toman, Sinn Fein, 6,108, 11.8%

Tara Doyle, Alliance, 2,720, 5.3%

Roy Ferguson, TUV, 1,035, 2.0%

Simon Lee, Green, 555, 1.1%

Colin Craig, WP, 218, 0.4%

Ian Nickels, Con, 81, 0.2%

YOUR 2022 ELECTION CANDIDATES:

Glenn Barr (UUP)

Doug Beattie (UUP)

Glenn Beattie Heritage Party)

Jonathan Buckley (DUP)

Diane Dodds ( DUP)

Darrin Foster (TUV)

Aidan Gribbin (Aontu)

Dolores Kelly ( SDLP)

Lauren Kendall (Green Party)

Liam Mackle (SF)

John O’Dowd (SF)

Eoin Tennyson (All)