Mike Nesbitt likely to be UUP boss for a second time - as Robbie Butler endorses new leadership

Robbie Butler has endorsed a “a revised and refreshed leadership team” under Mr Nesbitt – after having considered a joint-ticket with East Antrim MLA John Stewart last week.

Mr Nesbitt, currently serving as health minister, will run on a platform to reform the Ulster Unionist Party and is expected to widen the pool of MLAs involved in running – and reforming – the party.

That could involve Robbie Butler remaining in the deputy leader role – but relinquishing the position of chief whip to John Stewart. After quitting, Doug Beattie had described the role as “lonely and isolating” – an experience the new leader will not be keen to replicate.

There is a broad feeling among UUP MLAs that the party needs urgent reform of its structures, and it appears that Mr Nesbitt now faces a showdown with at least some of the party officers – some of whom he will be able to personally replace.

However, as the dispute was not primarily driven by policy differences, many of the officers who had become hostile to Doug Beattie may be ready to give Mr Nesbitt a fair wind despite no major change in the overall direction of the party.

But given the party’s rules – Mr Nesbitt could still face a challenge, perhaps even from an unelected figure.

All anyone needs to make the ballot paper is 30 signatures from nine constituencies across Northern Ireland – they do not need to hold an elected public office.

Amid the fury among a section of the party’s base over how Doug Beattie’s tenure ended, some within the party have raised concerns that an unelected figure could run to avenge the former leader’s ousting. Whether that is a realistic prospect or not, it says something about the current state of the party that it is a concern.

One source told the News Letter last week that is “not inconceivable that a twitter personality could run for leader and become leader”. That seems unlikely now, given Mike Nesbitt has thrown his hat in the ring.

Where Mr Nesbitt stands on some of the key issues facing Northern Ireland is one thing – where his party stands is quite another. The Strangford MLA was the first leader of an official opposition in Stormont’s latest incarnation.

The Ulster Unionist leader told the 2016 assembly at its first sitting that having an opposition “heralds a new era for devolved politics at Stormont”.

“Let battle commence”, he told the chamber.

But Mr Nesbitt is currently of the view that now is not the time for a return to the opposition benches. The UUP team is pretty evenly split on the issue, with Doug Beattie, Steve Aiken, Andy Allen and John Stewart the most keen to take the party out of the Executive. It appears that under a Nesbitt leadership, that option is out of the question.

He has been supportive of the Windsor Framework – arguing that “we should grasp” the “opportunities” it contains. He suggested that “dual access” to the UK and EU markets would be an incentive for voters in a border poll to choose to stay within the United Kingdom.

“​Although there are issues that we all have as unionists with the Protocol / Windsor Framework there are opportunities within it and I think we should grasp them”, he told the BBC’s Nolan Show in June 2023.

Precisely what those opportunities are remain to be seen. Earlier this year Invest NI refused to release figures which show how much interest there has been in NI from foreign investors since the protocol was signed – arguing it could “harm” its ability to attract investment.

According to analysts at EY the number of Foreign Direct Investment projects actually moving into NI was actually lower in 2023 compared to 2022 – however, the Framework has yet to be fully implemented so that number could improve, or worsen.

Either way, it appears that an Ulster Unionist Party under Mr Nesbitt will be keen to spin the positives of the new trading arrangements – rather than seek to undermine them.

Robbie Butler and John Stewart had been expected to put their names forward to the membership for the upcoming leadership vote.

That will not now happen, leaving Mr Nesbitt heading into the vote with no prominent challenger and an effective coronation looking likely.