Sam McBride: DUP had the raw political power to ditch restrictions entirely – so why did it take cold feet?

The issues now exposing the Executive’s shambolic indecision involve the intersection of medicine, economics, the role of government – and raw political power.
First Minister, Arlene Foster.First Minister, Arlene Foster.
First Minister, Arlene Foster.

With considerable justification, four weeks ago the DUP believed that they had secured a small technical victory when the current circuit breaker restrictions were put in place.

For weeks the chief medical officer had been recommending the need for tougher restrictions but the DUP and Sinn Fein had not moved to put that to a vote in the Executive.

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The extreme secrecy of how the DUP and Sinn Fein govern means that it is difficult to be precise as to what exactly happened in that period – and unless the behaviour exposed by the RHI Inquiry has been abandoned, there are unlikely to even be very many official government records of what went on.

However, the DUP has always been the most ideologically opposed to the concept of tougher restrictions and it was Arlene Foster who was the most vociferous in emphasising that “we’ve all been very clear that [the restrictions] are for four weeks”.

When the regulations which put the restrictions into law were written, the DUP ensured the inclusion of a sort of automatic self-destruct mechanism within the legislation – the regulations stated that they would cease to have effect at midnight on Thursday night.

That gave a veto to the DUP over any further restrictions – and the party gave the impression to the public that there wouldn’t be new restrictions; this was a four-week period and that was the end of it.

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As the clock has ticked down to when the regulations expire, some in the DUP appear to have viewed that as their trump card.

The logic went that the other parties who want some level of restrictions would not be able to do anything without the DUP coming on board and so they were in the strongest position.

But while in terms of raw power that is true, sometimes in politics having the most power in a crisis is an uncomfortable position because it removes any ambiguity as to who was responsible for key decisions.

If the DUP simply blocked all attempts to extend restrictions, on one level it was sure to get what it wanted. But did it really want what Mrs Foster and Edwin Poots had said they wanted?

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On the day Mrs Foster faced the media to defend the circuit breaker, there were four deaths and just over 200 patients in hospital with covid. Today there were double the number of covid patients in hospital and almost three times the number of deaths – although the number of new cases that day was 763, which has fallen to 514 today.

Facing clear and persistent advice from not just the Chief Medical Officer, but from the major representative bodies for the medical profession, to extend these restrictions, a unilateral DUP decision to end them entirely would mean that any disastrous public health consequences of that decision could be easily traced to the DUP.

That enormous risk perhaps explains the apparently illogical situation whereby the DUP vetoed Health Minister Robin Swann’s plan to extend the restrictions for two weeks but then DUP minister Diane Dodds immediately tabled a proposal to partially extend the restrictions.

It appears that when presented with the opportunity to enact the sort of more laissez faire approach favoured by Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Jr and Edwin Poots, the DUP took cold feet.

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Four weeks ago when the circuit breaker was announced, the First Minister said firmly: “It’s important to say - and I’ve told this to the hospitality sector; I spoke with them today – this is for four weeks. So on November 13 people will be back working again; I think it’s important that they have that certainty...we do have to give certainty to the sector”.

Mrs Foster’s promise that the restrictions would end entirely in four weeks does not sit easily with her party is now proposing that they are partially extended.

Both Mrs Foster and Michelle O’Neill promised that the Executive would give businesses good notice of what was happening, yet the decision has been left so late that many businesses are no longer able to prepare for opening on Friday even if that is made legal.

What is now apparent – and should have been apparent all along – is that not only is it easier to enter lockdown than exit it, but it is easier to make promises to the public than to fulfil those promises.

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Editor