UUP leader Mike Nesbitt warns against relying 'exclusively' on opinion polls for border referendum decision
The Ulster Unionist leader has warned that it would be “brave” for any Secretary of State to rely “exclusively” on opinion polls in deciding when a border poll should be called.
Mike Nesbitt’s warning comes after comments from NIO minister Fleur Anderson said a decision to call a vote on whether to end the Union “would be based” on the voter attitude surveys.
While the NIO declined to be drawn on the methodology a Secretary of State would use to make that assessment, a spokesperson said that Hilary Benn “has been clear that there is no evidence that this condition has been met”. The UUP leader told the News Letter: “Schedule One of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 makes clear the Secretary of State can only call a referendum if they believe a majority would vote in favour of constitutional change.
“It would be a brave Secretary who would rely exclusively on opinion polls for that evidence, given people might well vote aspirationally in opinion polls, but more cautiously come the real thing. "Let’s focus on making people prosperous and content rather than continuously speculating on the uncertainty of change.”
The Belfast Agreement, which Mr Nesbitt’s party helped craft, said that “Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll”.
It says that the Secretary of State will allow for a referendum “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.
However, it does not elaborate on how he or she would come to that decision. Nationalists have sought clarity on how the government would reach that conclusion.
A Northern Ireland Office spokesperson said: “The responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. This is clearly set out in the Northern Ireland Act 1998, which gives effect to the Good Friday Agreement and the principle of consent. This has been - and remains - the only condition. The Secretary of State has been clear that there is no evidence that this condition has been met.”