QUB research: How did Covid 19 get to Northern Ireland?

The group of experts, led by Dr Gabor Kiss from the School of Mathematics and Physics at Queen’s, have been using mathematical modelling to track the course of Covid 19 in Northern Ireland, in order to prepare for future variants and diseases.

The research based project examined the dynamics of the disease from March 1 2020 until December 25 2020, using computer simulations and data provided by the Department of Health.

The mathematical modelling estimated that these seven people imported the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strain on March 1 2020.

Just over 19 months later, around 2,500 people have died in Northern Ireland with Covid 19. There has also been over 15,000 new cases in the last two weeks.

Previous mathmatical modelling led by Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) from Imperial College London, has been highly influential in shaping the UK’s response to the pandemic - with this Queen’s research set to do the same.

The study also estimates that it takes an average of 9.6 days for an exposed person to develop symptoms and become infectious to others, meaning that a symptomatic patient could spread the disease for nine days.

Dr Gabor Kiss explains: “The modelling suggests that the outbreak could have entered the country undetected as it took some time for people to become infectious and develop symptoms.”

“This research provides in depth data on how exactly COVID-19 spread in Northern Ireland and this will help to develop public health-driven strategies, not just in NI, but across the globe.”

Dr Kiss added: “It lays the foundation for a decision-making support tool which could assess the state of an outbreak and help to advise on optimal interventions in the early phases of any re-emerging high consequence infectious diseases which are vaccine-preventable.”

The experts also looked in detail at the first lockdown and found that the number of infectious people decreased rapdily after coronavirus restrictions were introduced by Government, such as social distancing and wearing masks.

The expert team at Queen’s is now working on incorporating other aspects of the outbreak into their models, such as the geographical journey of the disease in Northern Ireland.

This will give further information on the impact of localised lockdowns throughout the pandemic.

The research was published in the Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation, find it here https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=108335