Opta Analyst’s FRACAS (Field Rating and Course-Adjusted Strokes Gained) prediction model, which correctly fancied Rory McIlroy’s historic win at The Masters, has been put to work again and spat out the 10 players with the best chance of coming out on top on the north coast.
Here’s who they predict will have a big tournament – and it’s no surprise to see who is sitting in number one spot.
5. Matt Fitzpatrick - Win probability: 3.3%
The Open hasn't traditionally been the happiest hunting ground for Matt Fitzpatrick - his best finish is T20th here at Portrush in 2019 - but Opta's model gives him a small chance of adding a second major title to his collection. Photo: Christian Petersen
6. Viktor Hovland - Win probability: 3.2%
Viktor Hovland has recorded a top-10 finish at all four majors, including at The Open in 2022 when he finished tied-fourth - does he have the game to conquer Portrush? Photo: Andrew Redington
7. Keegan Bradley - Win probability: 3%
The United States' Ryder Cup captain's only previous major title came at the PGA Championship in 2011, but he arrives at Royal Portrush on the back of last month's triumph at the Travelers Championship. He hasn't finished above T15th at The Open for the past 12 years! Photo: ANDY BUCHANAN
8. Sepp Straka - Win probability: 2.6%
The Austrian has won five professional titles, including two on the PGA Tour this year - The American Express and Truist Championship - and after finishing T2nd behind Brian Harman in 2023, he might fancy his chances at another Open tilt. Photo: Warren Little