Opta Analyst’s FRACAS (Field Rating and Course-Adjusted Strokes Gained) prediction model, which correctly fancied Rory McIlroy’s historic win at The Masters, has been put to work again and spat out the 10 players with the best chance of coming out on top on the north coast.
Here’s who they predict will have a big tournament – and it’s no surprise to see who is sitting in number one spot.
9. Harry Hall - Win probability: 2.2%
This really would be a shock! The Englishman is making his Open Championship debut at Royal Portrush and has only previously won one professional title - the ISCO Championship last year - but is he one to keep an eye on? Photo: Warren Little
10. Sam Burns - Win probability: 2.1%
Sam Burns has won five times on the PGA Tour, the most recent of which came at the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, and he hasn't been able to produce his best on the major stage. His best-ever return is T7th at this year's US Open while his top finish at The Open is T31st in 2024. Photo: ANDY BUCHANAN