Cancer deaths rose during pandemic, NISRA study of ‘excess deaths’ finds

The increase in cancer deaths is revealed in the latest update to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) analysis of ‘excess deaths’ during the course of the pandemic.

The latest report shows the overall death rate increased by over 11% during the 22 months from March 2020, when the first coronavirus death was recorded in Northern Ireland, until December last year.

In total, there were more than 3,000 more deaths than would normally be expected during the 22-month period.

Statisticians arrived at a precise figure of 3,269 ‘excess deaths’ by looking at the total number of fatalities registered over the course of the five years prior to the pandemic, working out an average, and then comparing this to the actual number of deaths registered from March 2020 to December 2021.

This form of statistical analysis also allows mathematicians to work out how many fatalities can be expected for specific causes of death.

In the case of deaths caused by malignant neoplasm - cancer - there were 143 more recorded than would normally have been expected.

During the course of the pandemic, decisions were taken on several occasions to cancel or delay cancer appointments, including so-called ‘red flag’ or urgent appointments, as health trusts struggled to cope with the influx of coronavirus patients and moved to redeploy staff.

There were also rises in deaths from other causes, the NISRA report found, including fatalities linked to digestive illness with 114 more than would have been expected - a rise of 10.5%.

Interestingly, the number of deaths from non-covid respiratory illness underwent a huge decline with 708 fewer deaths of this type than would have been expected.

The report does not offer an explanation for this specific decrease, but health experts including the Chief Medical Officer Professor Sir Michael McBride have indicated that the measures taken to combat coronavirus had beneficial knock-on impacts on other viral diseases including flu and RSV.

The impact of illness directly linked with coronavirus, however, is clearly shown in the figures.

An analysis by NISRA of when the excess deaths occurred shows that more people than normal were dying during time periods that correspond closely to the various waves of coronavirus.

The report states: “In the first three weeks of March 2020, the number of deaths occurring was broadly similar to previous years. From then on, daily excess deaths remained above zero until the middle of May.

“During June and July, the number of deaths were at broadly similar levels to the average over the previous five years. For the remainder of the 2020, whilst daily excess deaths remained below the peaks of April, there continued to be more deaths than expected based on the previous five years.

“This persisted until mid-February 2021.”

It continues: “From March to May 2021, excess mortality was negative: deaths were lower than expected based on average deaths from 2016 to 2020.

“Excess deaths rose again from mid-June 2021 onwards with excess deaths in August-September 2021 (570) at a similar level to November-December 2020 (571). In the last three months of 2021, the number of deaths remained above expected levels, up until the last two weeks of December when deaths fell to more normal levels.”