Northern Ireland's population will start shrinking before it hits two million say latest statistics

Those are the remarkable predictions from the NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), which published its latest population projections for the Province today.

At the same time, the Office for National Statistics has released figures for the whole of the UK.

Taken together, they show that while the GB population looks set to grow, Northern Ireland's looks set to shrink if it maintains the same comparitively-low level of immigration.

However, the numbers are all based on some big assumptions about the rate of immigration over then next century.

The forecast is for the present rate of net international immigration to the UK (that is, the number of people arriving minus those leaving) to decline from the 631,000 per year at the moment, to 534,000 per year by 2026, then to 437,000 per year by 2027, then to 340,000 per year by 2028.

The forecast then assumes that this figure of 340,000 will remain constant into the foreseeable future.

The UK prediction is that the nation will increase in size from 69.9m people in 2026, to 72.5 million by mid-2032, and to 81.6m by 2122.

Given that the the fertility rate is already well below the "replacement rate" of two children per woman in the UK, and set to remain so, that predicted growth of 11.7m people (about 15%) by 2122 would be driven entirely by immigration.

In Northern Ireland the picture is different.

The prediction is that the net immigration figure will be about 5,000 per year this year, still 5,000 per year in 2026, then fall to 4,000 in 2027, and 3,000 in 2028.

The assumption is that this will remain at this level into the foreseeable future.

Given that Northern Ireland's rate of immigration is much lower than GB, and given the fact that Northern Ireland also has a fertility rate of beneath two children per woman, the rate of people coming into the country will not be enough to offset the number of people dying each year – therefore, Northern Ireland will start losing population.

The projection is that the Province's population will hit 1,933,000 by 2026, then peak at 1,950,000 in 2033, and then start coming down.

If all the assumptions built into the model hold true, that means by 2122 Northern Ireland would have a population of 1,437,000 – about one quarter lower than it is today.

The projections also show the continuing ageing of the Northern Ireland population.

The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 49.6% between mid-2022 and mid-2047.

Likewise, the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase by 122.2% over the same period.

By mid-2027, there is projected to be more people aged 65 and over (377,700 people) than children aged 0-15 (366,700 people) in Northern Ireland.

Another way of looking at the same pattern is the proportion of people of pension age.

Right now in Northern Ireland, that figure is 17.4%, whilst the proportion of people who are of working age sits at 63.1%.

By 2122 in Northern Ireland, the proportion of the population who are pensioners is set to hit 31.7%, whilst the proportion of people who are of working age will have declined to 54.5%.