Owen Polley: Hopes of fixing Protocol debacle could hang on Tory leadership race

If the comedian had scripted the last few weeks of the Conservative government, it would have been dismissed as too over the top and unbelievable to be funny. A farce, a soap-opera, a shambles - how can you describe the latest developments at Westminster?

In my previous column, I pointed out that it was difficult to rely on the government’s statements on the Northern Ireland Protocol, given that the PM and her cabinet may not be in place by the end of the month. As it happens, I substantially over-estimated Liz Truss’s staying power.

On Wednesday, the prime minister became embroiled in a row with her home secretary, Suella Braverman, who was previously a staunch supporter. This ended with Mrs Braverman writing a resignation letter that implied that the government had lost its way.

A dramatic enough development in the political world, but there was still time that evening for a melee in the House of Commons, as whips allegedly tried to manhandle Tory MPs into the lobbies, to vote down a Labour motion on fracking.

The following day, it was Ms Truss’s turn to resign.

She delivered a short statement outside Number 10 that actually boasted about her achievements during her 44 days in office. This self praise, and the lack of an apology, would almost have been comic were it not for the serious situation confronting the whole UK and Northern Ireland in particular.

When the government reopened protocol negotiations with the EU at the start of the month, unionists were understandably nervous that some kind of sell-out might follow. At the same time, there were valid reasons to believe that Ms Truss offered the best chance of resolving longstanding issues with the Irish Sea border.

As foreign secretary, she burnished her leadership credentials by taking a tough approach to Brussels. She was thought to have persuaded Boris Johnson to introduce a stronger version of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which may yet provide the government with unilateral powers to solve some of the most serious problems with the Protocol.

After she became prime minister, she promised that any “negotiated settlement” would “deliver all the things we set out in the NI Protocol Bill”. And only this week, Ms Truss repeated that commitment in the House of Commons.

Now, unionists are again openly sceptical that negotiations with Brussels will achieve an acceptable outcome. The DUP’s Jeffrey Donaldson said her resignation is likely to have a “negative impact” on the talks. The prime minister, he pointed out, secured MPs’ support for the Protocol Bill, which was an important aspect of the government’s push to restore NI’s place in the UK internal market.

This week, we are likely to see more drama and tumult in the Conservative Party, as it chooses a new leader. Boris Johnson is thought to be plotting a comeback, claiming that he is the only contender capable of winning an election, while Rishi Sunak believes he can reassemble the bloc of MPs that supported him against Truss.

Ultimately, any Tory leadership contest will be decided by the party’s members, unless there is sufficient support at Westminster for one candidate. While that is arguably a more democratic process than simply polling MPs, prime ministers need to retain the support of a working majority in the House of Commons. That contradiction is unlikely to be resolved within seven days.

The Conservative party is gearing up for another general election that is likely to take place in 2024. Tory MPs will be motivated by retaining their jobs and potentially forming another government in two years’ time, while party members are likely to be more ideological that the average voter.

The rest of the country needs consistent leadership, a spell of reliability and even, dare I say it, more political boredom. In Northern Ireland, in particular, we need a government that is determined to resolve the issues created by the protocol properly and for good, whether through domestic legislation, a negotiated settlement or a mixture of both.

That means that the endless Tory conveyor belt of prime ministers, secretaries of state and foreign ministers has to stop.