West Tyrone election statistics show the importance of turnout and transfers

West Tyrone is one of our constituency profiles today (see link below).

The Traditional Unionist Voice party believe that they can win a seat there in Thursday’s assembly election.

The DUP and Ulster Unionists seem not to think that is likely.

Within days we will discover who is right about that.

But there is another statistic in that electoral area that should be of interest to unionists everywhere:

The combined unionist vote is around 30%. That, in a purely decided system of proportional representation, would lead to unionists getting 1.5 of the 5 constituency MLA positions. Obviously such a breakdown is impossible, so the great likelihood is either that nationalists/republicans will get four seats and unionists one, or that the breakdown will be three/two. There are other possibilities such as nationalists/republicans getting two seats, Alliance one, and unionists one.

But in the last election, the combined nationalist/republican vote was 62% of first preference ballots cast, and yet such candidates got 80% of the seats (four out of five).

Something similar has happened in other constituencies too. In South Down, the combined nationalist/republican vote is 64% of the total and yet there they also get 80% of the seats (again, four out of five). In South Down, the unionist vote is approaching 30%.

These statistics illustrate graphically the importance of a large turnout for unionist candidates . Also the importance of voting down the ballot paper. In West Tyrone an overall unionist vote of a few points higher, say 33%, when combined with exhaustive use of transfers could clinch a second seat.

Also, after backing unionist candidates voters should seriously consider going further. By doing so they might in some constituencies help an SDLP, Alliance or other candidate take a late seat at the expense of SF.

That party’s attempt to get Saoradh support for a border poll shows how important it is to try to reduce SF influence in the coming Stormont parliament.

Election 2022: West Tyrone is a key hope for Jim Allister’s party