Alex Kane on Carla Lockhart: MP 'not yet crossed her Rubicon' but unionism heading for 'existential tussle' at next election

But Alex Kane warned that whatever the Upper Bann MP plans for the future, Northern Ireland is “looking at the nastiest election since the referendum vote in 1998”, with unionism itself potentially facing what he called “an existential tussle” between rival internal blocs – one wanting the Assembly to stay, the other pushing for it to be pulled down.

Contacted by the News Letter in the wake of Ms Lockhart’s resignation as a DUP party officer, part of its internal governing structure, the commentator felt the full ramifications of her decision will only become clear once it’s known why she was motivated to do it.

“Was it to kickstart a series of other resignations within the party officer team, and maybe at other levels in advance of a move to topple [DUP leader] Gavin Robinson?” he asked.

“Or was it the first step to either independence or the TUV – or, was she just sending a message that the party wasn’t being strong enough on the “profound consequences” of Sinn Féin’s recent actions?

“But the fact she didn’t resign from the party on Thursday may be a sign that she had yet to cross her Rubicon.”

Suggesting there is “obvious pressure on the DUP” to bring down the Executive, Mr Kane felt that Mr Robinson and a majority of his key players are concerned that if unionists collapsed Stormont, it would send a message that “Northern Ireland isn’t working”.

He added: “They also think direct rule would do no favours for unionism.

“Sinn Féin’s electoral base wouldn’t care if the place collapsed because they are fed up with unionism generally. They also believe collapse ups the ante in terms of an early border poll, on the basis that if Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement institutions are seen not to work then the case for testing the UK versus a united Ireland is stronger.

“The DUP is resisting at the moment because it got its fingers badly burned after the last forced collapse in 2022. In the subsequent election, Sinn Féin became the lead party, Michelle O’Neill became First Minister, and the Windsor Framework left the NI Protocol exactly as it was.

“It’s also resisting because the “dump O’Neill” lobby has no clear plan for what would happen next. And the UUP also supports not collapsing, meaning the majority of unionism seems to be on same page.”

Mr Kane feels a LucidTalk poll of political popularity due a fortnight from now might be the key.

“If it indicates a significant dip in DUP or Robinson support, it might push the party into the “withdraw Emma” option,” he argued. “Plus, if a trickle of key players resign or withdraw support in favour of Lockhart, that could also force Robinson’s hand.

"Sinn Féin is very confident about doing well in the next election, so doesn’t feel the need to push the nuclear button. But if Robinson is forced to ensure the removal of O’Neill as First Minister, then it is likely that Sinn Féin would simply withdraw from the assembly altogether and try to force an early election.

“Whatever happens, it is clear that we’re looking at the nastiest election since the referendum vote in 1998.”