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The Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News survey puts Sinn Fein at 23.2% of first preference votes among decided voters, well ahead of the DUP on 19.4%. The poll shows the Alliance Party emerging as the third force in the Assembly with 15.6%, ahead of the Ulster Unionists on 14%, the SDLP on 9.9%, the TUV on 6.4% and the Green Party on 6.3%.

If the results were replicated in the Stormont election in 11 weeks’ time, it would put Michelle O’Neill on course to become first minister. The poll also shows that little more than one in 10 unionists regard the Northern Ireland Protocol as the most important issue in the election.

The Institute of Irish Studies director, Professor Peter Shirlow, told the Irish News: “The majority of those who are as yet undecided are either unionists or in the middle ground, which suggests they have been influenced by recent events. “The survey began amid the fallout from (Ulster Unionist leader) Doug Beattie’s Twitter controversy and continued through Paul Givan’s resignation – it’s very possible these two factors had a bearing on people’s hesitancy.”

But the PA news agency said DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has insisted his party is “closing the gap” on Sinn Fein.

“The protocol remains a big issue for many people,” he said. “When I talk to people, the protocol is an issue for many people. But I recognise that this election is also about the future of Northern Ireland, it is about our health service and reform of our health service. It is about recovery of our economy post pandemic.”

He added: “As far as the poll is concerned, the DUP is closing the gap on Sinn Fein, we will continue to work at that.

“I have made clear I want unionism to win this election. We are going all-out for a victory and the feedback we have been getting on the ground is very positive.”

The UUP said it had a history of powersharing - but insisted it was aiming for First Minister too.

A party spokesperson said: “The Ulster Unionist Party has always put the interests of Northern Ireland and its people first. We are fighting to take the First Minister`s Office. The UUP has a history of sharing power with nationalism. However we will not concede the election before it has been fought.

“Therefore, any decision for the Ulster Unionist Party to go into the Executive Office as either first or deputy first minister, or indeed into the Executive, will follow a period of negotiation where legitimate issues and concerns must be addressed to avoid another dysfunctional five years.””

But the TUV challenged the DUP and UUP not to facilitate a Sinn Fein first minister if it became the largest party.

A TUV spokesperson said: “The key point to remember is that, because it is a joint office, a Sinn Fein First Minister is only possible if they find a Unionist willing to act as deputy First Minister. The question the DUP and UUP must answer is a simple one – in the event of Sinn Fein emerging as the largest party will they nominate a stooge as deputy? If Unionists are united in agreeing that they will not then the possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister does not arise.”

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Election 2022: Sir Jeffrey Donaldson says DUP ‘closing the gap’ on Sinn Fein after poll puts republicans ahead