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Jim Shannon said Mr Woodward “certainly is not in touch with the real views of people across Northern Ireland”, after he went on ‘The Nolan Show’ yesterday to declare that pro-united Ireland feeling is now running so high that the government will soon be legally obliged to call a referendum.

However, the accuracy of a number of the things Mr Woodward said during his interview have been challenged.

For one, he asserted that there is a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly (in reality there are 35 nationalist MLAs, 37 unionist ones, and 18 ‘other’ MLAs).

He also cited the fact Catholics now outnumber Protestants as one of the criteria for triggering a referendum.

And Mr Woodward also appeared to suggest that a third condition either has been met, or will be met soon: that a majority of people in the Province are in favour of a united Ireland.

CATHOLIC NUMBERS IN THE CENSUS ‘PART OF POLL TRIGGER’:

Here’s what Mr Woodward told Stephen Nolan: “Well I don’t believe the conditions necessarily have been met, but it’s getting pretty close.

“I mean when if we go back a few years we were looking at this, you know, you were looking at for example was there a majority in the census of Catholics in Northern Ireland. Well, we’ve seen recently that number has shifted considerably.

“Is there a majority that would wish for this to happen in the Assembly? Well the Assembly now has a nationalist majority (it doesn’t function of course, and that’s a whole other conversation).

“And then we’re looking at whether or not the opinion polls, which seem to suggest in Northern Ireland that there is a wish that actually a majority, even if it’s a small majority, would want to indicate their preference.

“Now if all those three things are met, the legislation actually requires the secretary of state, it actually says the secretary of state shall make an order-in-council. It doesn’t say ‘might do’. It says ‘shall’.”

Pressed further by Mr Nolan on what exactly the conditions for holding a referendum are, Mr Woodward said his understanding is this:

1) “There has to be a consistent majority in opinion polls” favouring Irish unity;

2) The government needs to consider “is there a Catholic majorty in the census of NI?”

3) And, “thirdly and crucially, the Assembly is, by a majority, in support for a poll”.

(Check out a transcript of Shaun Woodward’s verbatim remarks here)

WHAT THE 1998 DEAL ACTUALLY SAYS ABOUT A BORDER POLL:

The Good Friday Agreement itself does not list any exact criteria for triggering a poll.

It says only this: that the NI secretary of the day “shall” direct a referendum to be held “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland”.

This same wording was then written into law in the 1998 Northern Ireland Act.

When it comes to opinion polls, this reporter is not aware of any which show a consistent majority would vote for Irish unity (although some have suggested the percentage could be in the mid-to-high 40s – see below).

This being so, DUP Strangford MP Jim Shannon told the News Letter: “I don’t know what world Shaun Woodward’s in. Maybe it’s a parallel universe.”

He added: “There is no appetite for it within government across the water.

“And I’m absolutely convinced that there’s no appetite for it a border poll either amongst the people of Northern Ireland.

“If we look at the census... there’s nothing to fear from what’s in the census results whatsoever.

“The census does not strike any fear or disconcertedness in myself or the majority of unionists.”

In particular he cited the fact far more people regard themselves as British than Irish.

“When it comes to will there be a poll, I’m more and more convinced there won’t be”, he said – but added that “if there should be, by some miracle” then he estimates between 60 and 65% will back the Union.

WOODWARD SEEKS TO CLARIFY REMARKS:

Last night, Mr Woodward said he wanted to clarify his comments.

He told the News Letter: “Crucially I did not say the poll was unavoidable.

“However, because the facts have changed, not least the very significant 2021 census which gives a majority to those identifying as Catholic, the outcome of the last election, and the numbers from recent polls, as well as the economic climate (all of which I referred to in the interview), all of this means that the Belfast Agreement may – if the trajectory continues – not only require the Secretary of State to take note, but then act.

“In other words , that if these trends continue and we get a view that the Assembly may not have a majority against a poll (and also that public opinion polling indicates a wish to consider a poll – and therefore becomes the crucial indicator remaining), taken together, it’s not about whether anyone does or does not want a poll, it’s that the Belfast Agreement sets out what would happen: that it ‘shall’ require an order -in-council to provide for a poll on the principle.

“But – as I stated in the interview – that would only be the beginning of the matter.

“Because only after such a poll would there be consideration of the practicalities of how it would/could work.

“And then of course there would have to be at least one more poll (which the Belfast Agreement defines as “concurrently”) in Ireland too (after all the negotiations, since it would likely require constitutional amendments that too would have to have a referendum in Ireland.) And possibly in Northern Ireland as well.

“That’s an awful lot of ‘ifs’ even if it moves towards requiring a first in principle poll!”

Mr Woodward continued: “Part of what I was trying to say this morning was that even if the Secretary of State finds themselves having to have a poll (which to restate may be more likely and even probable but not yet certain), there would be many more hoops to go through.

“And crucially I stated nobody should be rushing in to this. Hence my saying that even if it became necessary then the timetable should ensure that no single issue should be able to dominate the debate, etc (for example, the economy).”

EMPEY: ‘WHY ARE PEOPLE ENCOURAGING REPUBLICANS?’

Reg Empey was leader of the UUP when Shaun Woodward was in post as Northern Ireland secretary.

He questioned why anyone would spend time and energy “encouraging republicans” in their quest for a border poll at a time when millions of citizens’ living standards are dropping.

When it comes to the points he made in the Nolan interview, Sir Reg said Mr Woodward is “talking out of his hat”.

As the News Letter reported last week, whilst the 2021 census has shown that Catholics now outnumber Protestants in the Province (45.7% to 43.48%), when it comes to national identity the picture is much more nuanced.

Asked if they were British, Irish, Northern Irish, or a combination, the results were:

> Irish: 33.3%

> British: 42.8%

> Northern Irish: 31.5%

And when it comes to opinion polling, whilst online pollsters LucidTalk have previously run surveys indicating that pro-united Ireland sentiment is as high as 46.2%, face-to-face polling done by university academics – the NI Life and Times survey – has shown that the level of support for Irish reunification never rises above about 30%.

See here for a fuller account of the census results – Beyond Catholics and Protestants: Here’s what 2021 census says about national identity – Britishness, Irishness... and Northern Irishness

Last night Sir Reg told the News Letter: “[Mr Woodward’s] intervention, with such huge inaccuracies and lack of understanding even of the basic facts, [is] very disturbing.

“I just think his contribution today was so utterly inaccurate as to be dangerous. I’m very disappointed.”

He noted that the pound has just dropped to a roughly four-decade low, and as winter approaches “a refill of oil is the best part of £1,000”, adding: “I just don’t understand why people are playing the game of encouraging republicans ...

“The latest election, bad and all as it was for unionism, showed nationalism maxing out at 40%.

“And not all people who would vote for them are necessary ready for an all-Ireland poll or would even vote for a Northern Ireland poll.

“So I don’t understand why we keep paying so much attention to this.”

Back in 2010, when Parliament was debating the devolution of policing powers to Stormont, Lord Glentoran said of Mr Woodward: “He must be the worst secretary of state in my 11 years here with whom I have ever had to deal.”

UUP peer Lord Maginnis, also speaking in Parliament, had gone one further: “The noble Lord, Lord Glentoran, was very wrong: Shaun Woodward has been the worst secretary of state for Northern Ireland for the past 38 years.”

Irish unity poll: DUP MP wonders whether ex-Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward ‘inhabits a parallel universe’ after referendum claims on Nolan Show