House sales and prices expected to strengthen in Northern Ireland over next three months as 'further interest rate cuts are expected this year'

Three-month expectations for house prices and sales in Northern Ireland strengthened in February, despite some uncertainty in the wider economy, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) residential market survey.

A net balance of 84% of survey respondents expect prices to increase over the next three months. This is the highest this balance has been since late 2006. A net balance of 67% of NI respondents expect house sales to rise over the same timeframe, which is the highest balance seen in over a decade.

Longer-term, Northern Ireland respondents also expect prices and sales to increase over the year ahead.

Surveyors’ strong expectations for the market come after a relatively robust start to the year.

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When it comes to pricing, a net balance of 75% of respondents in NI reported a rise in house prices over the past three months. This is in contrast to what is seen in other parts of the UK, with NI seeing the highest balance out of all UK regions.

Homebuyer demand also edged upwards through February according to the latest survey results. A net balance of 6% of surveyors in NI report that new buyer enquiries rose.

On the sales front, a net balance of 22% of NI respondents noted a rise in sales through the month of February, up from 17% in January.

The results of the latest survey do though point to a fall in the supply of homes. A net balance of -5% of NI surveyors reported a fall in new instructions to sell through February.

Samuel Dickey, RICS Northern Ireland Residential Property Spokesman, said: “The NI housing market has started 2025 on a broadly positive note, with both prices and sales continuing to rise and expectations strengthening. This is despite some concerns in the wider economy over inflation and global events.

"In terms of market activity, with Stamp Duty changes from the start of April, there appear to be buyers and sellers keen to complete before this comes into effect, lifting demand in the early months of the year. Further interest rate cuts are expected this year which will likely increase affordability and support activity in the months ahead. The ongoing lack of adequate supply in the market should continue to act to support prices and price growth.”

Commenting on the UK picture, Simon Rubinson, RICS Chief Economist, explained: “The UK housing market appears to be losing some momentum as the expiry of the temporary increase in stamp duty thresholds approaches. Some concerns are also being expressed by respondents about the re-emergence of inflationary pressures and the more uncertain geopolitical environment. That said, looking beyond the next few months, sales activity is seen as likely to resume an upward trend with prices also moving higher.

“A key support for the market continues to be the increased flow of existing stock becoming available, giving buyers a greater choice of options. However, leading indicators around new build remain subdued for now, highlighting the significance of the Planning and Infrastructure Bill introduced to Parliament this week.

“Meanwhile, despite a flatter trend in demand for private rental properties, the key RICS metric capturing rental expectations is still pointing to further increases demonstrating that the challenge around supply spans all tenures.”