Israel cites international military experts who query Gaza death toll figure claimed by Hamas, due to IDF

David Mencer was speaking from Jerusalem on the anniversary of the 7 October attack on Israel in which Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages.

Israel then moved into Gaza to remove Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist group by the EU, UK and US. Hamas says Israel has killed 41,000 people in Gaza, but refuses to say how many were Hamas fighters.

This week Keir Starmer said: “Over 41,000 Palestinians have been killed, tens of thousands orphaned, almost two million displaced, facing disease, starvation, desperation, without proper healthcare or shelter. It is a living nightmare and it must end.”

However Israeli spokesman David Mencer said independent military experts query the breakdown of the Hamas figure.

He said: "We've done everything we can to save the lives of ordinary Gazans, whereas Hamas purposefully fights us from urban areas because they wish to maximize the death toll on civilians.”

He noted that in Mid-August Israel claimed to have killed over 17,000 Hamas fighters, but that 16,000 civilians had also died; Israel claimed this was “the lowest civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio in history”.

Mr Mencer also cited a Newsweek article (in March) from by US Col John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

Mr Spencer wrote: "In my long career studying and advising on urban warfare for the U.S. military, I've never known an army to take such measures to attend to the enemy's civilian population, especially while simultaneously combating the enemy in the very same buildings. In fact, by my analysis, Israel has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history...".

He said Israel made over 70,000 phones calls and sent 13m texts warning civilians to leave combat areas, but that, as history predicted, 10% of civilians refused to move.

At that time he noted it was suggested the ratio of fighters to civilians killed could be 1:1.5 but added that as Hamas is likely to “inflate” figures, it could be closer to 1:1.

"Either way, the number would be historically low for modern urban warfare."

Those calling for Israel to find an alternative to civilian casualties, he said, should be honest that this alternative would leave the Israeli hostages in captivity and allow Hamas to survive.

"The alternative to a nation's survival cannot be a path to extinction."

Mr Mencer also cited the analysis of Former British Army Commander Richard Kemp.

Speaking to the News Letter, Mr Kemp also noted the lengths the IDF had taken to warn civilians to move, cancelling 50% of airstrikes due to civilians, he said.

"We don’t know the numbers or whether Hamas’s claims of 40,000 dead are correct,” he said. “But we do know that the IDF estimates they have killed more than 19,000 terrorists.

"When you consider Hamas has also murdered many of their own people and that at least 6,000 Gazans will have died of natural causes this means that less than 50% of deaths in Gaza are due to IDF action."

Mr Mencer also recommended the analysis of retired UK Major Andrew Fox, a former Sandhurst Lecturer, some of which can be seen here and also embedded in the story as a Tweet, above.

Around 10:30am today (7 October), the News Letter invited comment from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the UK Prime Minister and The Palestinian Mission in London.

The News Letter approached these stakeholders over two days for comment.

As of 9 October, the UN and Human Rights Watch did not respond while the Palestinian mission said its ambassador was too busy to do so.

The News Letter asked all stakeholders if;-

:: They would estimate what percentage of the Gaza death toll is Hamas fighters?

:: Their view on claims about Israel taking historically unprecedented care to protect civilians?

:: Claims that Hamas extensively uses civilians as human shields?

:: How Israel should defend itself from ongoing attacks from Hamas while trying to free its hostages, particularly in light of the fact that Hamas says it will carry out the 7 October attack again?

Only the Foreign Office (on behalf of the Prime Minister) and Amnesty international responded.

However neither of them addressed any of the questions.

The Foreign Office responded: “As the Foreign Secretary said in his speech to the House on the 2nd of September, we remain a friend of Israel.

"We are committed to Israel’s right to exist and to defend itself in accordance with IHL (International Humanitarian Law), and for the Israeli people to live safely, in secure borders. But in defending itself, Israel must act in line with international law. It is critical that we uphold these laws as the bedrock of the rules based international order.”

Patrick Corrigan, Northern Ireland director of Amnesty International UK, said: “In the year since the horrific attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups in southern Israel - attacks in which some 1,200 people were killed and around 250 abducted - the ongoing devastating Israeli onslaught has, according to the United Nations [based on figures provided by Hamas], killed more than 41,500 people, and forcibly displaced nearly two million people in the occupied Gaza Strip, some 90% of the population.

“The UN has recorded that the majority of those killed have been children and women, while an estimated 10,000 Palestinian bodies remain under the rubble with no possibility of retrieving and identifying them.

“According to the UN, Israeli forces have also killed 986 healthcare and humanitarian workers, and 126 journalists, as well as destroyed hospitals, schools and refugee camps, leaving no safe place in Gaza. The International Court of Justice has found that Palestinians in Gaza are at risk of genocide.”

(Note: Israel strongly rejects this and the International Court of Justice has not delivered any verdict against Israel regarding this claim).

“The need for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, the release of civilian hostages and unlawfully detained people, respect for international law and for the rights of all victims to truth, justice and reparation, are more pressing than ever.

“There’s an urgent need to address the root causes of this decades-long crisis, including Israel’s illegal occupation and system of apartheid, to cut the supply of arms to all parties and end longstanding impunity that has seen Israeli forces, Hamas and other armed groups flout international law for decades without fearing any consequences.”