Political storm clouds threaten Northern Ireland’s SME economy

The news is starting to be dominated by reports of a massive impending ‘El Niño’ - a natural climate pattern which occurs every few years, wreaking havoc by causing extremes of weather, bringing floods to some regions and droughts to others.

The knock-on effects are many and varied, even including a reduction in the number of ships being allowed to pass through the Panama Canal, with consequent impacts on product availability and prices. At first sight, it may seem a stretch to draw a parallel with the natural political pattern that occurs every few years at Stormont, when havoc can be wreaked by party extremes and policy divisions, with unintended consequences following in their wake for so many aspects of the economy. I won’t stretch the allegory any further but suffice to say, as the settled spell of summer draws towards a close, autumn looks likely to presage an inevitable breakdown in political relations that will do little to support or encourage our vital SME economy and all the entrepreneurs who create jobs and wealth.

With barely six months of the Assembly and Executive left to run there is a very real risk, if history teaches us anything, of poor legislation being rushed through with little effective scrutiny and even less public engagement or support. The last Assembly mandate saw damaging legislation pushed through for which subsequent amendment is the only option for avoiding the worst effects. The Climate Change Act saw wholly unrealistic targets embedded in law which, unreformed, will do little to temper climate change but will seriously damage the economically vital agri-food sector and much more besides. Similarly, the legislation to scrap hospital parking charges represented one of the worst forms of pre-election populism for which subsequent repeal was inevitable. Both of these examples point to an ill-considered decision-making process that served to wasted time, resources and opportunity. As we enter the final weeks of this Assembly mandate, there is immense risk of legislation being rushed or forced through that could do untold damage to the economy for years, possibly for generations, to come. The Employment Rights Bill, with its dystopian title of the ‘Good Jobs Bill’, is one such measure. Just as with those flawed Bills from the last mandate, this one has many seemingly attractive elements that are worthy of support; but the sheer scale of change proposed in one fell swoop, along with a number of the specific measures it contains, would be damaging for those entrepreneurs who create wealth and employment.

And by extension, the unintended negative consequences will ripple out to those it purports to assist as entrepreneurs, faced with massive intrusions into their workplaces, will shy away from creating employment and, thus, avoid the risk. We’ve already seen the downward pressure on job creation and on opportunities for young people that recent changes to tax and working conditions have caused, so the signs are already visible. In these closing days of the current Assembly, it would be folly to try to force through legislation that has not been thoroughly tested, scrutinised and supported across the Executive and Assembly. Despite this Bill initially surfacing over two years ago, its progress has been opaque and, although we understand it has been amended, the expected version has still not been published, so business owners are largely unaware of its contents.

In consequence employers haven’t been properly involved nor their experience taken into consideration. In light of this, it would be utter folly to press ahead, especially in the absence of genuine, informed, cross-party consensus with buy-in from employers and effective scrutiny from politicians. As with El Niño, the unintended consequence of our political heavy weather could be severe economic damage. Unlike El Niño, however, there are choices to be made so, as we enter the politically stormy months ahead, business will continue to encourage our elected representatives to avoid the extremes and to find the consensus that will make for better law and not do damage to the job-creators on whom so many families depend.